 | POPULATION ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
Population History
The
population of the Town of Marbletown fluctuated between 1930 and 1950,
but increased significantly between 1950 and 1966. The follow-ing table
shows the population history:
TABLE 1: POPULATION HISTORY, TOWN OF MARBLETOWN
Year Total Population % Change
1930 2,276 +11.7
1940 2,543 -7.0
1950 2,364 +35.0
1960 3,191 +17.1
1966 3,736
Source: U. S. Census of Population, 1960 and Special Census, 1966
TABLE 2: POPULATION CHANGE COMPARED TO SELECTED AREAS 1940-1960
1940 1950 % Change 1940-50 1960 % Change 1950-60
Town of
MARBLETOWN 2,543 2,364 -7.0 3,191 +35.0
Rochester 2,454 2,532 +3.2 3,012 +19.0
New Paltz* 2,815 3,749 +33.2 5,841 +55.8
Rosendale* 2,548 2,950 +15.8 4,228 +43.3
Hurley 1,530 1,980 +29.4 4,526 +128.6
Olive 1,320 1,463 +10.8 1,999 +36.6
City of Kingston 28,589 28,817 +0.8 29,260 +1.5
Ulster County 87,017 92,621 +6.4 118,804 +28.3
N. Y. State 13.5 mil. 14.8 mil. +10.0 16.8 mil. +13.2
* includes Town and Village Source: U. S. Census of Population
The rate of increase between 1950 and 1960 for the Town of Marbletown
exceeded the rate of increase for Ulster County and New York State.
However, all of the adjacent communities with the exception of the Town
of Rochester grew at a faster rate! Numerically, the growth between
1950 and 1960 of the Town of Marbletown exceeded the Town of Rochester
and Olive, but was exceeded by the other adjacent communities.
Age and Sex Distribution
The following table shows a comparison between age groupings for the Town of Marbletown and Ulster County.
TABLE 3: AGE GROUP DISTRIBUTION, TOWN OF MARBLETOWN COMPARED TO ULSTER COUNTY
Town of Marbletown 1960 Ulster County 1960
Number % %
Under 5 311 9.7 10.8
5-14 579 18.1 17.9
15-24 290 9.1 12.1
25-34 372 11.7 13.2
35-44 381 11.9 12.5
45-54 386 12.1 11.6
55-64 401 12.6 9.8
65 & over 471 14.8 12. 1
3,191 100.0 100.0
Source: U.S. Census of Population, Business Fact Book, 1967, Mid-Hudson Area, Part 2, New York State Department of Com-merce
The
Town of Marbletown had a smaller percentage of the total population in
the young and middle age groups (under 45) and a higher percentage of
its population in the 45 and over age groups, than Ulster County.
TABLE 4: AGE GROUP DISTRIBUTION 1950 AND 1960
Town of Marbletown 1960 Ulster County
1950 1960 1950 1960
Number % Number % % %
Under 15 489 20.7 890 27.8 22.4 28. 7
15-24 234 9.9 290 9.1 13.3 12. 1
25-54 937 39. 6 1,139 35. 7 40. 9 37. 3
55-64 371 15.7 401 12.6 11.5 9.8
65 & over 333 14.1 471 14.8 11.9 12. 1
2,364 100. 0 3,191 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0
Source: U. S. Census of Population and 1957 & 1963 Business Fact Book Mid-Hudson Area, New York State Department of Commerce
All
of the above age groups increased numerically in the Town between 1950
and 1960. However, the under 15 age group (pre-school children and
school age children) showed the most significant increase. As pointed
out in the above table this age group was still a smaller percent-age
of the total population in 1960 when compared with Ulster County. The
age groups 15-24, 25-54 and 55-64 increased numerically but decreased
as percents of the total population. The 65 and over age group
increased both numerically and as a percent of the total population.
In both 1950 and 1960 the Town of Marbletown had a higher percentage
of its population in the older age groups when compared to Ulster
County. In both the Town and County the 55-64 age group decreased as a
per-centage of the total population while the 65 & over increased
in both the Town and County.
TABLE 5: AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTION, TOWN OF MARBLE-TOWN, 1960
Males Females Total
Population
Number % Number % Number %
Under 5 158 10.2 153 9.3 311 9.7
5-14 281 18.2 298 18.1 579 18.1
15-24 141 9.1 149 9.1 290 9.1
25-34 176 11.4 196 11.9 372 11.7
35-44 195 12.6 186 11.3 381 11.9
45-54 174 11.3 212 12.9 386 12.1
55-64 188 12.2 213 12.9 401 12.6
65 & over 232 15.0 239 14.5 471 14.8
1,545 100.0 1,646 100.0 3,191 100.0
Source: U. S. Census of Population, Business Fact Book, 1963, Mid-Hudson Area, Part 2, New York State Department of Commerce
In
1960 there were 101 more females than males in the Town of Marbletown.
A major portion of these 101 females were in the 45 & over age
groups. Otherwise, no significant differences between the male and
female popu-lation existed.
Natural Increase and Net In-Migration
The population of a community can grow in two ways: through natural
increase--the excess of births over deaths--and through net
in-migration --the excess of in-migration (people moving into a
community) over out-migration.
Between 1950 and 1960 there were 539 births to residents and 428 deaths
of residents resulting in a natural increase of 111. Between 1950 and
1960
the total population increased by 827 persons. Subtracting the natural
increase from the total population increase results in 716 per sons
which was the net in-migration between 1950 and 1960. Natural increase
accounted for 13. 4% of the population increase between 1950 and 1960
while the net in-migration accounted for 86.6%. This pattern was
somewhat different from the County as a whole where natural in-crease
accounted for one-third of the population increase.
TABLE 6: NATURAL INCREASE, TOWN OF MARBLETOWN, 1950 - 1966
Year Resident Births Resident Deaths Net Gain
1950', 27 23 4
1951 47 46 1
1952 50 42 8
1953 39 51 -12
1954 39 39 --
1955 59 48 11
1956 59 36 23
1957 56 47 9
1958 71 43 28
1959 74 42 32
1960* 18 11 7
Total 1950-1960 539 428 111
1960 (remainder)* 53 33 20
1961 69 44 25
1962 60 41 19
1963 72 35 37
1964 65 50 15
1965 61 46 15
1966 56 48 8
Census
figures are as of April 1st of the census year and natural increase
figures are for the calendar year. There-fore the 1950 figures have
been adjusted to 3/4's of that year's total and the 1960 figures to 1/4
of that year's total.
Source: New York State Department of Health
TABLE 7: NATURAL INCREASE AND NET IN-MIGRATION 1950-1960
Population 1960: 3,191
Population 1950: 2,364
Change 1950-1960 827 (100.0%)
Natural Increase 111 (13.4%)
Net In-Migration 716 (86.6%)
Source: U. S. Census of Population, New York State Department of Health
Household Size
The
proportion of the population in households and the population per
house-hold are of value in understanding population trends and housing
trends. Household population, as defined by the U. S. Bureau of the
Census, is the number of persons, not necessarily related, who live as
groups in living quarters known as housing units. In general the
national average house- hold size has been decreasing. This reflects
the ability of older families to continue maintaining a household after
retirement and the ability of newly married persons to form their own
household rather than live with their parents or other relations.
The following compares the population in households and the average
num-ber of persons per household for the Town of Marbletown, adjacent
communi-ties, Ulster County and the State of New York.
TABLE 8: POPULATION IN HOUSEHOLDS AND PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD, TOWN OF MARBLETOWN COMPARED TO SELECTED AREAS 1960
Population in Households Persons per Household
Town of
MARBLETOWN 3,175 3.09
Rochester 2,921 3.28
New Paltz* 4,825 3.11
Rosendale* 4,179 3.17
Hurley 4,526 3.38
Olive 1,992 2.96
City of Kingston 28,498 2.97
Ulster County 113,976 3.16
New York State 16.3 mil. 3.11
* includes Town and Village
Source: Business Fact Book 1963, Mid-Hudson Area, part 2, New York
State Department of Commerce
The number of persons per household is approximately the same as New York State and somewhat lower than Ulster County.
Length of Residence
TABLE 9: YEAR MOVED IN TOWN OF MARBLETOWN
Town of Marbletown Ulster County
Year Moved In Number % %
1954 - March 1960 410 39. 9 50.5
1940 - 1953 352 34.3 30.5
1939 or earlier 266 25.9 19.0
Total occupied housing units 1,028 100.0 100.0
Source: Business Fact Book, 1963, Mid-Hudson Area, Part 2, New York State Department of Commerce
Approximately
40% of the families residing in the Town of Marbletown in 1960 moved
into their residence between 1954 and March 1960. However, this is
below the Ulster County figure of approximately 50%.
Estimate of Current Population
The resident population of the Town of Marbletown was 2,364 in
1950, increased to 3,191 by 1960 and further increased to 3,738 as a
result of a 1966 special census. A January 1, 1967 estimate of current
popu-lation is approximately 3,800 persons.
Seasonal Fluctuation of Population
The population of the Town is subject to seasonal fluctuation due
to a seasonal influx of persons. The land use survey found 214
seasonal dwelling units existing in the Town. When these are occupied
in the summer months, the population increases by approximately 700
per-sons. In addition the resorts of Page One Chateau, Grand View
Lodge and camps of Camp Hi-on-a-hill and Camp Hurley are located in
Marbletown. The resorts are not large but the camps can probably
accommodate several hundred persons. A rough estimate of influx to the
resorts and camps is 300-400 persons. In addition many of the
buildings of Lake Mohonk are located in the Town of Marbletown. Several
hundred persons can be accommodated at Lake Mohonk. How-ever, even
though these persons at Lake Mohonk may be
physically within the Town of Marbletown the effect of these people is
not as sig-nificant because there are several entrances to and exits
from Lake Mohonk in addition to those in Marbletown and therefore all
traffic ent-ering and exiting Lake Mohonk does not have to travel
through Marble-town.
The total estimated influx of population during the summer months is
ap-proximately 1,500 persons when the resorts and camps and seasonal
dwel-lings are operating at capacity. Thus, the total resident and
seasonal in-flux population results in a total population of
approximately 5,300 persons.
Spatial Distribution of Population
The existing land use map shows the distribution of housing units
in the Town and the distribution of population by census tract is
discussed in the existing land use section of this report. Two
concentrations of popula-tion are located in the Town: one at Stone
Ridge basically along Route 209 and the other at High Falls. The
remainder of the population is de-centralized along the existing street
system evidencing rural character-istics.
Summary
Although the population increased by over 800 persons between 1950
and 1960, primarily by net in-migration, most of the adjacent
communities increased by a higher figure. Even though approximately
50% of this popu-lation increase was in the under 15 age group the
total population charac-teristics of the 1960 population still reflect
a rural community, i.e., a smaller number of persons per household and
age grouping characteristics indicating a higher percentage of persons
in the old age groups (45 & over).
Population Forecast
Population forecasts serve as a basis for estimating the quantity
of community facilities such as schools and recreation and serve as a
basis for estimating land area requirements for residential purposes
and to some extent commercial and industrial purposes as well.
Statistical methods utilized to forecast population must be based upon
a knowledge of the area and also reflect the judgment of the forecaster.
The following forecast uses a population projection for Ulster County
as prepared by the New York State Office of Planning Coordination as
the basis for the forecast for the Towns of Marbletown, Hurley,
Rosen-dale, Rochester and Wawarsing and the Village of Rosendale
combined and individually. This forecast indicates a growth of
approximately 100,000 persons in the next 30 years in Ulster County. It
is excpected that 25 - 35% of this increase will be within the five
Towns and Village.
The following is the population history and population forecast for
Ulster County as prepared by Cornell Aeronautical Laboratory Inc. for
the New York State Office of Planning Coordination.
TABLE 10: POPULATION HISTORY AND FORECAST, ULSTER COUNTY
Year Ulster County Total Population
1930 80,155
1940 87,017
1950 92,621
1960 118,804
1965
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